Latte Art: A Matter of Preference

An estimated 1.4 billion cups of coffee are brewed each day, making it one of the most beloved beverages worldwide. In the United States alone, approximately 400 million cups are consumed daily, while Finland boasts the highest per capita consumption, nearing 11 kilograms annually by some estimates. For many, including myself, coffee has become an integral part of our routines.

However, the future of our cherished morning ritual is jeopardized. A significant portion of the globe’s coffee is cultivated within what is known as the "Coffee Belt," an area spanning roughly 30° North and 30° South of the Equator. This region encompasses a diverse array of countries, including Brazil, Honduras, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Kenya, India, Indonesia, and Yemen, among others.

The Coffee Plant: Vulnerable to Rising Temperatures

Despite its somewhat misleading nomenclature, around 70% of the world's coffee is sourced from a single plant species, Coffea arabica, or Arabica Coffee. This plant flourishes in temperatures ranging from 64°F to 70°F (18°C to 21°C). Although it can endure temperatures up to 73°F (24°C), prolonged exposure to such heat is detrimental.

The real peril arises once temperatures reach 86°F (30°C), at which point the growth of the plant is severely stunted, its leaves begin to yellow, and the plant risks dying. Coupled with rising temperatures, pests and fungal infections that thrive in warmer conditions pose a serious threat to coffee cultivation.

This brings us to the Paris Agreement, a pivotal gathering of global leaders aimed at addressing climate change. The agreement set an ambitious target of limiting global temperature increases to between 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial levels by 2050. While this goal is optimistic, it represents the best-case scenario. Unfortunately, for Coffea arabica and coffee enthusiasts everywhere, it could lead to dire consequences.

Recall that ideal temperature range of 64°F to 70°F (18°C to 21°C)? Even temperatures around 73.4°F (23°C) won’t outright destroy the plant, but they will significantly reduce productivity, threatening the viability of coffee as a cash crop. This economic aspect is crucial for the future of coffee.

An often-overlooked consequence of climate change is its disproportionate impact on lower GDP countries, often referred to as the "developing world." Nations situated near the equator, which experience less yearly temperature variation, will feel the effects of rising temperatures much more sharply.

Coffee's Economic Significance

These nations are also among the top coffee producers globally, and the stable temperatures they experience are vital for coffee cultivation. For many of these countries, coffee is not merely a beverage; it represents a significant part of their economies, aiding their development and recovery from historical colonial challenges.

However, emissions from wealthier, developed nations negatively impact the climate in these coffee-growing regions, which could lead to reduced coffee yields. In a worst-case scenario, coffee could become unviable in these areas, forcing farmers to switch to easier-to-cultivate cash crops.

The Path Forward

So, what is the solution? There is no single answer to this complex issue. Diversifying coffee plant varieties could be beneficial. Many farmers are exploring genetic modification and selective breeding with wild coffee plants to develop more heat-resistant strains.

However, this is merely a temporary fix. The true solution lies in combating climate change itself. Without addressing this challenge, coffee may become prohibitively expensive, a luxury for the affluent, before eventually disappearing altogether, marking the end of a centuries-long love affair.

Next time you stop by your local coffee shop or café, consider bringing a reusable cup. Together, we can help ensure that coffee remains a cherished part of our lives for generations to come.